日本成人动画

时间：：2025年12月9日10:00-11:30（周二）

地点：明德主楼734

主讲人：钟松发，新加坡国立大学教授

主持人：苗彬教授

主题：A Simple Test of Complexity in Decisions under Risk

讲座简介：

In the literature on decisions under risk, researchers have focused on two primary approaches: as-if revealed preferences and cognitive friction in lottery evaluations. Here we propose a simple test in which individuals evaluate (almost) degenerate lotteries. Most choice models would predict that valuations should converge to these degenerate values; thus, any deviation from this convergence indicates a violation of dominance. We examine the power of this test in a series of experiments. In an online study with Prolific participants, we found that 86% of subjects failed the test. Notably, those who failed exhibited a more pronounced four-fold pattern of risk attitudes compared to those who passed. Two additional experiments replicate and expand these findings, and explore the roles of cognitive uncertainty and the simplicity equivalent of lotteries. In an experiment with a university-student sample, while participants were less likely to fail the test, we continue to observe the same relationship between test failure and four-fold risk attitudes. Our study sheds light on the understanding of decisions under risk and the role of basic cognition in experimental settings.

主讲人简介：

钟松发是新加坡国立大学教授、香港科技大学教授。他的研究兴趣包括行为经济学、实验经济学、神经科学和遗传学等。他目前已在 American Economic Review、Econometrica、Review of Economic Studies、Review of Economics and Statistics、Journal of the European Economic Association、International Economic Review、Journal of Econometrics、Journal of Economic Theory 等经济学期刊，以及 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences、Management Science、Neuron、Psychological Science 等期刊发表数十篇论文。目前，他担任 Management Science 的副编辑和 Theory and Decision 的协调编辑。